5/22/2013
NBT Research Report

We begin coverage of MIMVI, a pure-play app search company for the hyper-growth Mobile Internet market.

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UNDER the Hood, Mimvi’s (MIMV) M&A Deal with Lone Wolf Inc. IS a VERY Big Deal.

I spent some quality time with the CEO of Lone Wolf, Inc. Eric Rice to try to get a handle on the opportunity and potential his company brings to Mimvi, Inc. (MIMV).

AS I suspected, the press release sent yesterday did not SCRATCH the surface as to the opportunity the Lone Wolf Company brings to the table. Most press releases (except those written by NBT of course!) rarely tell much if any of the REAL story in these deals.

In ENGLISH (not jargon or tech speak) — while Mimvi finishes up its mobile app search & recommendation technology…

1)     Lone Wolf is about to come out of stealth mode with its own unique form of celebrity “E-Events” or mini-talk shows streamed over the internet to digital devices/PCs/Laptops/Tablets around the world. Think of an E-Event as a traditional talk show segment created just for ONE celebrity and broadcast to that celebrity’s FANS who have been invited to “hang” with their BFF athlete or pop culture hero in a FUN and extemporaneous LIVE and socially interactive online event.

Think of watching the Letterman or Leno show the night one of your favorite actors/singers/athletes is on the show. How many times have you said “Dude…I don’t want to watch the cheesy monologue or Top 10 list or OTHER’s….I just want to watch Jlo or Cruise or Drew Brees and NOT waste my time with the others.”  Also…I’d like to watch the event in prime time NOT at 12am and I’d like to see 15-20 minutes UNinterrupted by ads every 6-8 minutes.” 

With Long Wolf’s targeted talk show “super segments”…what YOU want is what you get! You get the person YOU are a big fan of in an uncensored online solo talk show format…JUST the celeb and his/her fans on a live streaming social event—and later on one of the online content syndicators. 

All talk—no commercials…no censors…with the celebrity that really floats YOUR boat!

What Eric and his team have been developing for last 18 months is figure out HOW to pull this off and HOW to know which celebrities have enough interest to pull a big audience.

Over the last 18 months they have stealthily  built a 79 million person social media circle via the management of thousands of celebrity Twitter and Facebook accounts…pretty smart (and provable via social media reach data analytics).

The HOW TO KNOW who to bring to the E-Event is technology that comes from reading the data analytics from their 79 million “Twittersphere” and FBosphere”—as in who is hot and who is not (via “neural search”—software that interprets Twitter and Facebook trend data). Lone Wolf measures trending opinions and sentiment of their 18-34 year old crowd—and then will create programming TO THAT SENTIMENT and trend cohort (side note: see note below on how Twitter sentiment or “neural search” has been HIGHLY effective in predicting short term market trends—Lone Wolf is using the same Twitter data analytics to figure out WHO and WHAT to bring to live E-Events…brilliant!)

2)     They have been working on this type of “Anti-Facebook” social media for over 24 months…and are NOW ready for a July launch. I say anti-Facebook because the FB model is for their users to create media they hope their friends want to see…well The Lone Wolf Media model is for LONE WOLF to create a media experience a large segment within their 79 million social media reach want to see—and bring that to THEM. Big difference.

3)     OK—now think. What Lone Wolf is REALLY doing is dis-aggregating and disrupting the cable TV pop culture celebrity talk shows for a FREE ONLINE social media format broadcast OVER-THE-TOP of wired/wireless broadband…I LIKE that. Disruption strategies build wealth…me too strategies don’t.

And THAT is exactly what the Internet is good at doing…cutting out the media stuff I DON”T want to see and letting me opt-in to see and participate in the media I DO want to see. Until there were 100 million iPads and wireless 3G/4G and Hulu/Xbox channels and dozens of internet content syndicators…the Long Wolf idea was NOT viable.

NOW it is…and Lone Wolf has an 18 month head start on getting out in front of E-Event “narrowcasting”. Cutting out the middleman is CLASSIC Internet.

What will this “mini-talk shows” look like?  Let me make an example that I hope ALL ages can relate to. I am a HUGE Rene Fleming fan…you know the mezzo soprano for the NY Met…of course you know her. Anyhow…AS a huge fan I would LOVE to be able to participate in an interview with her, watch her sing a few numbers in HD. I want this to be a LONG talk and sing video segment that I could see LIVE or see later on my TV (via internet connection) or laptop or on my iPad. I want to see it FREE…and I don’t want stinking commercials every 8 minutes…screw that!

YOU might not care about Rene (shame on you!) but millions of people like me DO! And brand companies that WANT to reach the demographic she attracts will SPONSOR the show with NO ADS but lead generation follow up.

What Lone Wolf is doing is finding the entertainment and pop culture celebrities via neural search that the 18-34 demographic brands WANT to reach but know this group does NOT want intrusive ads (ok Facebook?...remember when MySpace doubled up on ads?) and DON”T what to pay for the experience.

THIS is the Big Idea: Lone Wolf is like a TV talk show segment producer + broadcaster + advertising network + neural search engine all rolled up into one.

THAT is a VERY big idea. They have a VERY long list of existing and pipeline celebs—I have seen but it’s under wraps for obvious reasons.

I LOVE the idea—if they can execute (I DO know a little about infotainment TV that a lot of people want to watch—it’s NOT easy to do—Look at CNN :). Lone Wolf is going to announce some KEY production team members to prove to US they can pull of the talk show production chops to make this a reality. First “E-Event” is in July…

Again the strategy? The Lone Wolf Media strategy is to bring our proprietary celebrity based E-Event content directly to 18-34 year old demo in an online social media context that disrupts the non-interactive E-Entertainment offline media competition.

Conclusion: did you get any of THAT BIG IDEA from the Mimvi Press Release yesterday? Hmmm…not so much.

We will have MUCH more on this deal with Mimvi, but Lone Wolf looks to Mimvi to supply the Web technical and search technology to make their media content get to where it should be and make sure FANS find their events…via mobile APPS of course!

More to come next week!

PS: From the DailyMail.co.uk

Want to predict what will happen in the stock market tomorrow? Just use Twitter, say Californian researchers. 

A team at the University of California has created a computer model which allows them to 'predict the future' of the stock market by scanning the social network.

It has up to 11 per cent more accuracy than other computer models.

Researchers found that scanning for volume of Tweets and how those Tweets linked to other subjects could 'predict' stock prices a day later - and outperformed other computer investment tactics

The software looks at volumes of Tweets containing references to companies or products, and how they link to Tweets on other subjects.

It can predict both the volume of trading and the value of a stock the next day.

The discovery could have a huge impact on investors.

The team from the University of California has built a model which they claim could have a huge impact on investors by using the data to help predict the traded volume and value of a stock the following day.

During a four-month test the model did better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and outperformed other baseline strategies by between 1.4 percent and almost 11 percent. 

Professor Vagelis Hristidis, who specializes in data mining research which focuses on discovering patterns in large data sets, worked on the model. He said: ‘These findings have the potential to have a big impact on market investors.

‘With so much data available from social media, many investors are looking to sort it out and profit from it.' 

The team studied how activity in Twitter is correlated to stock prices and traded volume. 

While past research has looked the sentiment, positive or negative, of tweets to predict stock price, little research has focused on the volume of tweets and the ways that tweets are linked to other tweets, topics or users. 

Past work has also mostly studied the overall stock market indexes, and not individual stocks.

For the latest study the researchers obtained the daily closing price and the number of trades for 150 randomly selected companies in the S&P 500 Index for the first half of 2010.

Then, they developed filters to select only relevant tweets for those companies during that time period. For example, if they were looking at Apple, they excluded tweets that focused on the fruit.

They expected to find the number of trades was correlated with the number of tweets.

But the number of trades is slightly more correlated with the number of ‘connected components’ - the number of posts about distinct topics related to one company.

For example, using Apple, there might be separate networks of posts regarding Apple's new CEO, a new product it released and its latest earnings report.

Read more here.

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