You have heard EVERY argument from the dark side economists and "market gurus" about how the stock market indexes are ONLY reaching new highs because the Fed has made stock the only liquid asset to own.
Somehow these perma bear prognosticators seem to be light a few facts. Let's start with earnings per share of the S&P 500 and "earnings yield"...how those earnings per share of the S&P 500 would look if they were included in dividend yield.
Numbers do NOT lie folks.
Year | Earnings Yield | Dividend Yield | S&P 500 | Earnings | Dividends |
1960 | 5.34% | 3.41% | 58.11 | 3.1 | 1.98 |
1961 | 4.71% | 2.85% | 71.55 | 3.37 | 2.04 |
1962 | 5.81% | 3.40% | 63.1 | 3.67 | 2.15 |
1963 | 5.51% | 3.13% | 75.02 | 4.13 | 2.35 |
1964 | 5.62% | 3.05% | 84.75 | 4.76 | 2.58 |
1965 | 5.73% | 3.06% | 92.43 | 5.3 | 2.83 |
1966 | 6.74% | 3.59% | 80.33 | 5.41 | 2.88 |
1967 | 5.66% | 3.09% | 96.47 | 5.46 | 2.98 |
1968 | 5.51% | 2.93% | 103.86 | 5.72 | 3.04 |
1969 | 6.63% | 3.52% | 92.06 | 6.1 | 3.24 |
1970 | 5.98% | 3.46% | 92.15 | 5.51 | 3.19 |
1971 | 5.46% | 3.10% | 102.09 | 5.57 | 3.16 |
1972 | 5.23% | 2.70% | 118.05 | 6.17 | 3.19 |
1973 | 8.16% | 3.70% | 97.55 | 7.96 | 3.61 |
1974 | 13.64% | 5.43% | 68.56 | 9.35 | 3.72 |
1975 | 8.55% | 4.14% | 90.19 | 7.71 | 3.73 |
1976 | 9.07% | 3.93% | 107.46 | 9.75 | 4.22 |
1977 | 11.43% | 5.11% | 95.1 | 10.87 | 4.86 |
1978 | 12.11% | 5.39% | 96.11 | 11.64 | 5.18 |
1979 | 13.48% | 5.53% | 107.94 | 14.55 | 5.97 |
1980 | 11.04% | 4.74% | 135.76 | 14.99 | 6.44 |
1981 | 12.39% | 5.57% | 122.55 | 15.18 | 6.83 |
1982 | 9.83% | 4.93% | 140.64 | 13.82 | 6.93 |
1983 | 8.06% | 4.32% | 164.93 | 13.29 | 7.12 |
1984 | 10.07% | 4.68% | 167.24 | 16.84 | 7.83 |
1985 | 7.42% | 3.88% | 211.28 | 15.68 | 8.2 |
1986 | 5.96% | 3.38% | 242.17 | 14.43 | 8.19 |
1987 | 6.49% | 3.71% | 247.08 | 16.04 | 9.17 |
1988 | 8.69% | 3.68% | 277.72 | 24.12 | 10.22 |
1989 | 6.88% | 3.32% | 353.4 | 24.32 | 11.73 |
1990 | 6.86% | 3.74% | 330.22 | 22.65 | 12.35 |
1991 | 4.63% | 3.11% | 417.09 | 19.3 | 12.97 |
1992 | 4.79% | 2.90% | 435.71 | 20.87 | 12.64 |
1993 | 5.77% | 2.72% | 466.45 | 26.9 | 12.69 |
1994 | 6.91% | 2.91% | 459.27 | 31.75 | 13.36 |
1995 | 6.12% | 2.30% | 615.93 | 37.7 | 14.17 |
1996 | 5.49% | 2.01% | 740.74 | 40.63 | 14.89 |
1997 | 4.54% | 1.60% | 970.43 | 44.09 | 15.52 |
1998 | 3.60% | 1.32% | 1229.23 | 44.27 | 16.2 |
1999 | 3.52% | 1.14% | 1469.25 | 51.68 | 16.71 |
2000 | 4.25% | 1.23% | 1320.28 | 56.13 | 16.27 |
2001 | 3.38% | 1.37% | 1148.09 | 38.85 | 15.74 |
2002 | 5.23% | 1.83% | 879.82 | 46.04 | 16.08 |
2003 | 4.92% | 1.61% | 1111.91 | 54.69 | 17.88 |
2004 | 5.58% | 1.60% | 1211.92 | 67.68 | 19.407 |
2005 | 6.12% | 1.79% | 1248.29 | 76.45 | 22.38 |
2006 | 6.18% | 1.77% | 1418.3 | 87.72 | 25.05 |
2007 | 5.62% | 1.89% | 1468.36 | 82.54 | 27.73 |
2008 | 7.24% | 3.11% | 903.25 | 65.39 | 28.05 |
2009 | 5.45% | 2.00% | 1115.1 | 60.8 | 22.31 |
2010 | 6.65% | 1.84% | 1257.64 | 83.66 | 23.12 |
2011 | 7.72% | 2.07% | 1257.6 | 97.05 | 26.02 |
2012* | 7.18% | 2.13% | 1426.19 | 102.47 | 30.44 |
2013 earnings per share will be around $110 a share...earnings yield about 7.25%...and a 10-year "risk-free" bond yield investors 1.85% or 18.5% return over TEN years.
The Point? The value of highly liquid stocks vs. highly liquid assets of ANY kind HAS to relative to current reward.
With 30-YEAR bonds paying 3.06% annual yield...and S&P 500 stocks with an earnings yield of 7.25% and REAL dividend yield of over 2%...and 4%-5% if you focus on the top yielders...simple math tells us that RELATIVE to other liquid financial assets...US S&P 500 stocks with worldwide revenue and earnings exposure continue to be inexpensive RELATIVE to alternatives.
The GREAT news for you emerging growth stocks is THIS is now the part of the bull market cycle where THEY outperform. We will include the iShares Russell Microcap Index (IWC) in this weekly update at the proxy for emerging growth stock under $500 million value.
In the next few weeks we will introduce the NBT Emerging Growth Portfolio Model for 2013. We will follow our 12-15 stocks/30% Down/70% Double down portfolio strategy I touched on in the last NBT Week.
NOW is the time to ride the small cap run for the last 24-26 months of the current bull market!
- Toby
Initiating Coverage On Major ObamaCare Beneficiary University General Health Care System (UGHS) with Strong Buy $2.50 |
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In University General Health care System (UGHS) we have not only found a major beneficiary of the “Affordable Care Act”…we also found a completely unknown stock that has become a unique and astonishing health care system growth story for the next decade. |
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Initiating Coverage of Max Sound Corp. (MAXD) with Speculative Buy $2.50 Target |
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Blue-Ray vs. DVD? DVD vs. VHS? Video quality has improved amazingly in last 25 years…NOW it’s time for audio quality to join the “high definition” world. |
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Initiating Coverage on Webxu, Inc. with $2.50 Target and $100MM Revenue Target for 2015 |
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As in all massive shifts in any industry, there are big winners and big losers…and the early pioneer players in a rapidly shifting world many times are the ones who wind up with “arrows in their back” while others sit back and wait for the right moment to strike. |
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The Revolutionary and Disruptive Technology: Initiating Coverage with Strong Buy Rating and 12X Upside |
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Just the United States consolidation and recycling technology upgrades alone gets GlyEco to @.40 EPS in the first full year of nationwide operations—and they are over 50% of the way to their target of 12 completed acquisitions by 2014 as of this report. |
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Yee Haw! Pulse Beverage Adds 30 MILLION Thirsty Texans To Distribution |
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With its famous hot and humid weather…Texas is a BIG lemonade market. This “unnamed” distributor is certainly another Tier 1 distributor as it covers 7,000+ retail accounts and nearly 90% of Texas population. |
It's An App App World--62% Annual Revenue Growth Means Business |
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App stores run by Apple and Google Inc. now offer more than 700,000 apps each. With so many apps to choose from, consumers are estimated to spend on average about two hours a day with apps. |
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Global Data Spending Hits Tipping Point--More than Voice in 2012 |
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We forecast this tipping point in 2011…but it came earlier than even we thought. The move to one billion smart phones and the mobile internet is nothing short of eye-popping—the 16 years growth rate of Internet users has been eclipsed by mobile internet users…in just 4 years! |
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Ok, The Mobile App Economy is Exploding...But Holy Mackerel It's Insane |
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Simon Khalaf has it DEAD right. The Flurry chief executive built a case for the explosion in mobile devices and apps in a talk at the Flurry Source 13 conference in San Francisco. |
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Apigee Study Shows High Dependency on Mobile Apps |
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Apigee, an API Platform development company, has recently done a small study to check on mobile app dependency in various countries. Their 2013 Mobile App Behavior survey targeted 760 smartphone owners from 5 different countries (France, Germany, Spain, the U.K. and U.S.). |
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The Search for The Top 100 Emerging Growth Microcaps Is On! |
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NBT Equities Research and NBT Capital Markets LLC along with LD Micro, Sidoti Capital and Roth Capital Partners LLC are sponsoring "Top 100 Emerging Growth Microcaps 2013." Our goal is to identify and recognize the best-of-the-best emerging growth companies in the mostly invisible <$250 million market cap asset class. |
Max Sound Corp. (MAXD) |
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Tobin Smith of NBT Equities Research interviews CEO John Blaisure of Max Sound Corp. |
UGHS Investor presentation |
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University General Health System Investor Presentation - Jan. 2013 |
Will the S&P; 500 Index go on to make new highs this year? |
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LAST SURVEY RESULTS Is Apple a buy or sell under a $500 share price?
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Founder and Editor-in-Chief for NBTEquitiesResearch.com. Contributor and Anchor for the Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network 2000-2013. Chairman & CEO of NBT Group, Inc., a boutique private capital investment bank and investor relations organization.